Litija karbonāta avota piegāde kļūst arvien ciešāka, litija{0}}jonu akumulatora indekss gada laikā palielinājās par 82,75 procentiem.
Recently, Guotai Junan's announcement about the third price increase of lithium resources has caused a heated discussion in the market. It believes that the third lithium price increase has been brewed and started, and the price of lithium carbonate is the first to lead the rise. The supply and demand of lithium continue to be tight in a short time. Prices may remain strong.
According to Guotai Junan's analysis, the first time the price of lithium resources increased was from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year. The second price increase was from the end of June this year, when the price of lithium was 90,000 yuan / ton, and by the end of September, the price of lithium was close to the historical high of 180,000 yuan / ton. At present, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is in the range of 195,000-200,000 yuan per ton, and stocking up a year ago will become the core catalyst for the third rise.
A reporter from "Securities Daily" combed the Flush Lithium-ion Battery Index (885710) and found that during the first price increase of lithium resources, the index fluctuated less and remained at around 900 points, but it began to rise rapidly in May 2021, and once surged As high as 1700 points, during the second price increase, the index rose by 50 percent , and fell back to around 1500 points in late September. After entering November, the index started a new wave of gains. As of November 24, the index reached 1679 points, an increase of 82.75 percent during the year.
Šanhajas Ganglian New Energy nodaļas litija analītiķis Qu Yinfei sacīja laikraksta Securities Daily reportierim, ka arvien acīmredzamāka pretruna starp piedāvājumu un pieprasījumu ir pamudinājusi litija resursu cenu pieaugumu. Šobrīd pašreizējā tirgus cenu pieauguma iemesli ir papildus nepārtrauktam raktuvju cenu pieaugumam, un piedāvājuma un pieprasījuma pretruna joprojām ir cenu pieauguma spilgtākais punkts. viens. Dažu kausēšanas termināļu slēgšanas dēļ litija karbonāta piegāde uz vietas ir kļuvusi arvien ierobežotāka, un ir mazāk eksporta resursu. Turklāt pakārtotais noskaņojums ir augsts, un litija karbonāta tirgus tendence ir samērā skaidra.
Qu Yinfei said: "The rising price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased downstream cost pressure, so downstream companies also intend to increase prices, but there is a lag in price transmission. During the price increase, downstream companies' profits will be due to the high price of raw materials. my country's dependence on imported lithium mines is extremely high, and rising prices of lithium mine resources are one of the future trends. Therefore, some industry chain companies actively deploy overseas lithium mines, which can effectively control the cost of raw materials and lay the foundation for subsequent company expansion. ."
Vietējo litija rūdas resursu ir maz, bet litija sāls resursi ir ļoti bagāti. Tāpēc, sagaidot litija resursu cenu pieaugumu, kapitāla tirgus pievērš uzmanību ārvalstu litija rūdas resursu apvienošanai un iegādei, ko veic vietējie uzņēmumi, kas liek Ningde Times, Tianqi Lithium un citiem aktīvi darboties. tirgū un fondu pieprasīts. No otras puses, koncentrējoties uz litija ieguves koncepciju no sālsezeriem, pēdējā laika tirgus uzmanības centrā ir arī biržā kotēti uzņēmumi ar saistītiem sāls lauka resursiem un tehnoloģijām.
Džans Kujija, Jufeng Investment galvenais investīciju konsultants, norādīja Securities Daily reportierim, ka, gūstot labumu no nepārtrauktā jaunu enerģijas transportlīdzekļu, litija bateriju un citu nozaru uzplaukuma, litija resursu sektors šogad ir kļuvis par vienu no karstākajiem virzieniem. un globālā jaunās enerģijas viļņa apstākļos pieaug arī litija resursu cena, kas liecina par pastiprinošu tendenci. Šāda veida cenu kāpums padara nozares ķēdes augšējo daļu par lielāko ieguvēju, taču mums ir jābūt uzmanīgiem attiecībā uz ietekmi uz pakārtoto nozari, jo nav nozares alianses, kas koordinētu piedāvājuma un pieprasījuma līdzsvaru, kā arī straujo cenu pieaugumu. iepriekšējā posma izejvielu cena ietekmēs pakārtotās nozares ieņēmumus un tīro peļņu. Tas pat noved pie tālākas pretrunas starp augšupējo un pakārtoto piedāvājumu un pieprasījumu.
Zhang Cuixia added: "In order to cope with the increase in resource prices, domestic lithium-ion battery industry chain companies have launched overseas lithium mine acquisitions, which has also become a hot spot for capital to pursue. However, with the current high lithium resources, the acquisition price is also rising. It may bring obvious financial pressure to listed companies, and some unpredictable risks may occur in lithium ore reserves and mining costs. At present, the lithium-ion battery sector has risen too high, and some listed companies have already had high valuations. The value premium, even if there is still room for price increases in lithium resources in the future, the risks of related listed companies are also accumulating, and the room and motivation for the increase is not high."
